Weekly Market Commentary

Good news from Ireland, at last. Europe's biggest mozzarella cheese supplier Glanbia saw profits soar 51% Y/Y and upped earnings growth. Supplying fast food restaurants and pasta manufacturers, it said stubbornly high unemployment especially in the US was helping them. It suggests that people have traded down from outings to

EUR/GBP Developing a Double Top; Reward to Risk Assessment

The daily chart shows the EUR/GBP going up against a declining trendline. The market is reacting by pausing the rally at 50% retracement, 0.8350 level. Note the RSI is remaining under 60 for now and is turning lower. The 0.8400 area is 61.8% retracement, and is the resistance zone for

Nonfarm Positive Surprise: Shouldn’t USD Rally?

Here is the market's apparent logic of late: we supposed to sell the USD because the economy in the US is looking so terrible and weak data means ever lower US yields and a Fed that will devalue the USD to save the economy. If the data in the US

Finally, a Pleasant Surprise in U.S. Payrolls

We are nearing an end of the Census related volatility in the headline employment numbers. As of August there were 82K Census workers remaining to be shed. Nonetheless, weakness in government employment related to fiscal belt tightening by state and local governments will remain a downward influence on headline job

Risk-on Payroll Number Sinks Bonds

The shortfall in the loss of U.S. jobs created a risk-on environment spurring immediate gains for equity index futures, while sinking the dollar and bonds. Yields surged as the 10-year U.S. note sank by three-quarters of a point.

FX Thoughts for the Day

Cable has been moving in a small range of 1.5350-450 and may move within the same region till the US session today. Later today, or in the coming days, we expect the pair to move down towards the Support at 1.5300 (honour it or test it on a weekly basis),

Waiting for Euro Sell Opportunity

The Euro found support below 1.28 against the dollar during Thursday and attempted to push firmer, but there was further option-related selling close to the 1.2850 level which curbed gains. The slightly more optimistic ECB tone helped underpin the Euro and there was a general improvement in risk appetite which provided support.

London Session Recap

Currency markets are relatively quiet as traders are on the sidelines ahead of the key US employment report. The usual safe havens, the Swiss franc, Japanese yen and US dollar softened slightly as the rally in risk continued overnight. Asian stock markets extending gains and the Nikkei 225 advanced for

Is the Euro Poised for a Boost from U.S. Employment Report?

The euro is pushing its luck with the dollar even ahead of the critical employment report due out later this morning. Having touched $1.2854 already this morning, the euro is teetering on a surge to perhaps $1.2925 if today's jobs report softens the perceived need to hold dollars on safety

AUDUSD: Maintains Above The 0.9078 Level

The pair remains biased to the upside having held firmly above the 0.9078 level. This has created scope for more upside towards the 0.9219 level. While this level may present a considerable resistance on initial test, we believe it should give way for a run towards its May 04'10 high